Weekly Signal on North American
Week of August 2–8= A weekly read for North Americans who believe the continent is worth more together than apart — what moved this week, what it means, and what it asks of us.
THE LONGVIEW
The Week the Numbers Changed Sides.
By EJG
Friday at 8:30 in the morning, Washington and Ottawa published their jobs reports at the same hour. The United States lost 23,000 jobs in July, Canada added 75,000, being its third straight month of gains. A day earlier, in Mexico City, Banxico held its rate at 6.50% on a unanimous vote, and on Friday INEGI put inflation at 3.12%, the lowest since May 2020; The peso closed the week at 17.14, its best level in a year.
One month proves very little; Revisions come, and a single report is not an economic thesis. Its tempting to do it, but let’s be real. But what to me is clear and proved over the last eighteen months, has always run in one direction: Washington decides, and the neighbors wait.
This week the numbers ran the other way. The two economies living under the tariff wall added jobs and calmed their prices while the largest economy in the world cut payrolls.
In Mexico and in Canada, many will want to celebrate. It is normal to be excited, but as North Americans we need to think inclusively, strategically with a longview. I have spent my life in cross-border trade, and that life taught me early that our customer’s bad month becomes your bad month soon after.
The question that we must all ask ourselves is what does great look life for North America as one united bloc?
In June, 13 million remittance transfers crossed into Mexico, $5.5 billion in a single month, on the way to a record half year. Every one of those transfers began with a job in the United States. A weak Friday in Washington is a Monday problem in Guanajuato, and in Ontario too. Nobody wins by weakening their best customer.
What the week showed is something we say often and rarely take seriously: these three economies stopped being a hierarchy years ago. They work like one integrated system; When one arm weakens, the other two do not get stronger; They carry more weight.
The calendar now makes this practical. On August 19, the 50% tariffs on Canada take effect. The first week of September, Mexico sits down in Washington for its fourth round. Mexico arrives with stable prices and a calm peso. Canada arrives with employment growing. The United States arrives with the reminder that even the strongest machine needs maintenance.
For the first time since the tariffs began, everyone brings something real to the table, and everyone has something real to lose.
Anyone who runs a company knows that the monthly close tells you what the meetings did not. North America closed its July books this week; One set of books, and all 3 of us are in them together.
AFFAIRS
TRADE & POLICY
Canada and the United States are negotiating against the clock before August 19. Minister LeBlanc and Chief Negotiator Janice Charette briefed the provinces on August 6; Ottawa is prepared to lift provincial bans on American alcohol in exchange for tariff relief (Global Affairs Canada, Aug 6; CBC, Aug 6–7).
Trump called Canada “nasty” in Las Vegas; Carney responded the next day. “I love the people but they’re nasty. Nasty leadership.” He said it August 5, the same week both teams described the talks as “constructive” (CBC; BNN Bloomberg, Aug 6).
CAPITAL & INDUSTRY
The two jobs reports landed the same morning and told opposite stories. The United States shed 23,000 jobs in July; Canada added 75,000 and cut unemployment to 6.4%, the lowest since July 2024 (BLS; StatCan, Aug 7).
Banxico held its rate at 6.50% on a unanimous vote, its second straight pause. A day later, INEGI reported July inflation at 3.12%, the lowest since May 2020 (Banxico, Aug 6; INEGI, Aug 7).
The peso closed the week at 17.14, its best level in a year. The dollar lost 1% on the week and is down 8.4% on the year, pressured by the weak American jobs print (Banxico, Aug 7).
RESOURCES, RISK & ENERGY
The fight over the federal Colorado River plan escalated. Arizona called Interior’s proposal “devastating”; the Upper and Lower Basins split into opposing camps. The new rules would take effect October 1, with Mexico a party to the river under the 1944 treaty (Deseret News, Aug 5).
Washington signed 15% tariffs and price floors on polysilicon. The August 6 order covers wafers, cells and solar modules, targets China’s grip on the feedstock, and takes effect December 4. The bill lands on the continent’s solar and data-center buildout (Bloomberg; US News, Aug 6).
SOCIAL & CITIZENS
You can now walk between Windsor and Detroit: 3,400 people did it on day one. The Gordie Howe bridge’s pedestrian and cycling path opened August 5, running 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. from April through October (The Detroit News, Aug 6; CBC Windsor, Aug 5).
Remittances are headed for a record half year: $30.759 billion from January to June. June brought $5.472 billion, up 4.2% on the year, across 13 million transfers averaging $422 (Banxico, Aug 3).
AI & SPACE — The Race of Our Century
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly report as a public company. Revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% on the year, and $93.5 billion in cash after June’s IPO. The stock fell 7% after hours: AI costs weighed more than the beat (CNBC; NPR; Fortune, Aug 4).
Starship Flight 14 targets late August: first orbit and first attempt to catch the ship at the tower. Musk announced it on the earnings call; the flight would deploy the first Starlink V3 satellites, pending regulatory approval. Playa Bagdad remains the Mexican side of the program (Space.com, Aug 4).
KEY DATA
−23,000 — the jobs the United States lost in July (BLS, Aug 7).
+75,000 / 6.4% — the jobs Canada added, and its unemployment rate, the lowest since July 2024 (StatCan, Aug 7).
6.50%, unanimous — Banxico’s rate, second consecutive pause (Banxico, Aug 6).
3.12% — Mexico’s July inflation, the lowest since May 2020 (INEGI, Aug 7).
$30.759 billion — first-half remittances, an all-time record (Banxico, Aug 3).
17.14 — the peso’s Friday close; the dollar is down 8.4% on the year (Banxico, Aug 7).
+92% → $7.8 billion / $93.5 billion — SpaceX’s quarterly revenue growth and its cash pile (Aug 4).
15% plus price floors — the polysilicon order, effective December 4 (Aug 6).
3,400 — walkers and cyclists on the Gordie Howe path’s first day (Aug 5).
3.2% — US annual wage growth, the lowest since May 2021 (BLS, Aug 7).
KEY DATES
~Aug 14–15 — Reclamation’s 24-Month Study: sets the Colorado’s 2027 conditions.
Aug 19 — the 50% Section 338 tariffs on ~$20 billion of Canadian goods take effect.
Aug 24 — Douglas, Arizona reopens to Mexican cattle; Santa Teresa and Columbus follow.
Late August — Starship Flight 14: first orbit, first attempt to catch the ship at the tower.
Sep 1 — Mexico’s Congress opens; the AI law among the first reforms.
First week of September — fourth US–Mexico bilateral round, in Washington.
Sep 15–16 — the Fed’s decision; markets are pricing a cut after the jobs report.
Oct 1 — the new Colorado River operating rules take effect.
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN READING AND LISTENING TO
A shelf that compounds — every week adds, nothing is deleted.
This week
Read — Forbes / Tax Notes (Aug 3), “Blaming Canada: Trump Leans On Smoot-Hawley Tariff Authority.” The legal history behind August 19: a 1930 law that had never been used. → https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2026/08/03/blaming-canada-trump-leans-on-smoot-hawley-tariff-authority/
Read — Indeed Hiring Lab Canada (Aug 7), “July 2026 Labour Force Survey: The Turn Comes Into View.” The sharpest read of Canada’s labor turn. → https://www.hiringlab.org/en-ca/2026/08/07/july-2026-labour-force-survey-the-turn-comes-into-view/
Read — Deseret News (Aug 5), “The bitter battle over the Colorado River.” Winners and losers of the federal plan, state by state. → https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/08/05/winners-and-losers-of-interior-departments-colorado-river-water-proposal-federal-cuts-to-arizona-and-lower-basin-water-use/
Read — NPR (Aug 4), “SpaceX’s revenue rises as its once-soaring stock price drifts back to Earth.” The space race now files quarterly reports. → https://www.npr.org/2026/08/04/nx-s1-5918536/spacex-first-earnings-report-since-ipo
Read [ES] — El Financiero (Aug 3), “Remesas hacia México crecen 3.1% en el primer semestre del año.” The record half year, told from the inside. → https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2026/08/03/remesas-hacia-mexico-crecen-31-en-el-primer-semestre-del-ano/
New on the shelf (sources worth following)
Follow — Indeed Hiring Lab Canada. Canadian labor data read by hiring economists, week by week. → https://www.hiringlab.org/en-ca/
Extracts from NA77 · in our own words
“The relationship between Mexico and the United States cannot be based on friendship alone; it has to be based on a strategic alliance.” — Enrique Perret, in Camaleón de Norteamérica · Profile No. 2 (Aug 7, 2026). →
“No somos el problema. El sistema que toleramos, sí.” — The Rules of Poverty · Paper I, The Hundred-Year Divergence. → https://www.thenorthamerican.com/p/the-hundred-year-divergence-paper
“The region does not lack good people. It lacks institutions that can withstand the bad ones.” — The Rules of Poverty · Paper II, The Capture Machine. → https://www.thenorthamerican.com/p/the-capture-machine-paper-ii-de-iii
“Mexico’s future is in the decisions we make. El futuro de México no está al sur de sus problemas; está al norte de sus decisiones.” — The Rules of Poverty · Paper III, The Mexican Exit. → https://www.thenorthamerican.com/p/paper-33-the-mexican-exit
From the archive · Week of July 26 – August 1
The Washington Post — the federal Colorado plan, read by the people who know the river: it falls short of the drought. → https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/07/31/federal-plan-colorado-river-falls-short-what-needed-experts-say/
Axios — the bill for Canadian anger, in tourism dollars: $3.3 billion less. → https://www.axios.com/2026/07/28/canada-us-tourism-losses-canadian-travel
Portátil [ES] — the patrols at Playa Bagdad: the Mexican side of Starbase. → https://portatil.mx/2026/07/28/buscan-en-costas-de-tamaulipas-restos-del-cohete-starship-de-spacex/
The Essential of the week (one work from the canon, chosen for what happened this week)
Shannon K. O’Neil — The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter. The week the continent read as one labor market is the week to reread why the future belongs to regions. → https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300248975/the-globalization-myth/
Sources: BLS · StatCan · Banxico · INEGI · Global Affairs Canada · CBC · BNN Bloomberg · The Globe and Mail · Deseret News · Bureau of Reclamation · Bloomberg · US News · Quartz · The Detroit News · AM800 · CNBC · NPR · Fortune · Space.com · El Financiero · LatinUS · La Razón · Infobae · Milenio · Proceso · Excélsior · Forbes/Tax Notes · Indeed Hiring Lab Canada.