NA/77 Signal on North American Affairs
Week of Aug 10–16, 2026 · A weekly read for North Americans who believe the continent is worth more together than apart; what moved this week, what it means, and what it asks of us
THE LONGVIEW
The Missing Number
Lake Powell reached a record low the same day Mexico’s 2027 Colorado River number did not appear. On this river, whoever writes the number keeps the water.
Last year, on August 15, the International Boundary and Water Commission published Mexico’s initial Colorado River allocation for 2026: 1,352,595 acre-feet, precise to a single acre-foot.
One acre-foot is enough, by Reclamation’s measure, to supply between 1 & 2 American households for a year. That precision matters because farmers, cities and power systems cannot plan around “about.”
This August 15 came and went. Mexico’s number for 2027 did not appear.
That same Saturday, Lake Powell fell to the lowest level ever recorded there: 3,519.91 feet, one-hundredth of a foot below the record set in April 2023. Lake Mead crossed its own previous record eight days earlier, on August 7, at 1,040.46 feet, and kept falling.
Together, the two reservoirs now hold less water than at any point since May 1957, when Glen Canyon Dam was still under construction and Lake Powell did not yet exist.
The river’s two largest reservoirs are at record lows, and Mexico still has no published delivery number for 2027.
On July 31, the United States released its framework for the next decade of river operations, with clear near-term numbers already on the table: Arizona would give up 760,000 acre-feet a year in 2027 and 2028, California 440,000 and Nevada 50,000.
Those numbers did not originate in Washington. On May 1, the three Lower Basin states submitted their own two-year proposal with the reductions already divided among them. The federal framework carried forward the basic structure of their plan.
Mexico’s blank space is not hidden. Interior’s July release says the framework addresses domestic river operations only and that a separate binational process with Mexico is “nearing completion.”
The principal temporary operating provisions of Minutes 323 and 330 — the agreements governing Mexico’s shortage reductions and conservation under the 1944 treaty — end December 31, 137 days from today. The new water year begins October 1, forty-six days away.
I have spent my life in cross-border trade, and I have learned one thing: nothing moves without a official, verifiable and transferred documents authorities can validate.
A shipper without official export or import documents does is unable to move an inch in our industry. Farmers in the Mexicali Valley decide in the fall what goes into the ground, and that decision depends on knowing how much water is coming.
Washington is squeezing a neighbor. That is the easy read, and it is half true.
The other half is that Mexico has not put a number of its own in front of the public — not a demand, not a conservation plan, not a national accounting. Arizona, California and Nevada calculated their contribution and submitted it before anyone told them to.
That is what real agency looks like on a shared river.
Mexico could begin with a simple accounting: here is what we use, here is what we can save, here is what we will leave in Lake Mead, and by when.
Writing that number would force a reckoning with the water already being lost.
Some estimates put the Valley of Mexico’s leak losses at roughly 23 cubic meters a second, more than the Cutzamala system was built to deliver at full capacity. Pumping used to replace that lost water contributes to subsidence of as much as 50 centimeters a year in parts of Mexico City, damaging the same pipes that are already leaking.
Meanwhile, Mexico exported nearly 30 billion cubic meters of virtual water in 2024; the water embedded in the beef, coffee, fruit and vegetables it sells abroad. Nearly 78% went to the United States.
The problem is not the trade; It is that the water inside it, is rarely counted in the decision.
Denmark settled its leak question in 1994: utilities that lose more than 10% of their supply pay a penalty to the state. Danish losses are in the single digits today.
They did not moralize about waste. They priced it.
None of this is Mexico’s problem alone. Arizona farmers will leave more ground unplanted. Hoover Dam produces less power as the lake falls. Canadians who never touch the river eat the food it grows.
The consequences cross all three countries. But Mexico is the only one that could begin the new water year without a public national number on the table.
Write the number. Nobody else is going to write it for us.
AFFAIRS
TRADE & POLICY
The White House has turned Chinese transshipment into a North American accusation. A new report names more than 40 countries, including Mexico and Canada, as possible routes for Chinese goods intended to avoid US tariffs. It estimates that such practices cost the United States between $19 billion and $26 billion in duties annually. President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the accusation the following morning (White House via AP, Aug 13; mañanera, Aug 14).
Canada’s August 19 deadline moved from private talks to public confrontation. Canada’s negotiator called the threatened tariffs a “cliff.” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer answered publicly: “If a country retaliates against us, we’re not going to tolerate that.” He said the approach was global, not specific to Canada (BNN Bloomberg, Aug 12; CBC, Aug 14).
The reported US offer would lower the tariff wall, not remove it. Washington would reduce Section 232 tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum in exchange for Canada dropping its counter-tariffs and returning American alcohol to store shelves. Softwood lumber is excluded (CTV News and CBC, Aug 14–15).
USTR closed a labor case at Yazaki as Marcelo Ebrard pressed for lower tariffs. The case took nine months from petition to closure. Ebrard challenged the legal basis of the Section 301 action and confirmed that a fourth bilateral round will take place in early September (USTR and La Jornada, Aug 13).
CAPITAL & INDUSTRY
The peso broke below 17 to the dollar. It touched 16.9775 on Friday, its strongest level since June 3, 2024. The Canadian dollar traded near C$1.3872 as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve’s September decision (markets, Aug 14).
American retail sales fell 0.6% in July, their first decline in nine months. Sales of automobiles and parts fell 1.8%. Even excluding automobiles and gasoline, sales slipped 0.2% (Census via AP, Aug 14).
Mexican same-store sales fell 2.1% after inflation. Nominal growth of 1% disappeared once rising prices were taken into account. Department-store sales were flat (ANTAD, Aug 12).
Mexican heavy-truck production rose 51.8% in July. Manufacturers built 14,675 trucks and exported 13,117, including 9,374 to the United States. Year-to-date production and exports remain 6.1% below last year (ANPACT, Aug 11).
Mexican intermodal freight grew 13% in the week ending August 8, compared with 3.6% across the continent. Only coal and motor vehicles and parts declined (Association of American Railroads, Aug 12).
RESOURCES, RISK & ENERGY
Both of the Colorado River’s largest reservoirs have fallen below their previous records. Lake Powell reached 3,519.91 feet, about 30 feet above the minimum level needed for power generation. Lake Mead crossed its previous record at 1,040.46 feet on August 7 and continued falling. Combined storage is the lowest since May 1957 (AP and Reclamation, Aug 7–16).
The United States has public near-term reduction figures. Mexico does not. Arizona, California and Nevada proposed annual reductions of 760,000, 440,000 and 50,000 acre-feet for 2027 and 2028. The federal framework preserved their basic structure, while the separate process with Mexico remains “nearing completion” (Lower Basin proposal, May 1; Interior, Jul 31).
The principal temporary provisions of Minutes 323 and 330 end December 31. Under Minute 330, Mexico committed to 400,000 acre-feet of additional conservation through 2026, supported by $65 million in US funding for projects in the Mexicali Valley (IBWC).
The Valley of Mexico loses an estimated 23 cubic meters of water every second to leaks — more than the Cutzamala system’s design capacity of 19 cubic meters per second. The additional pumping needed to compensate contributes to subsidence of as much as 50 centimeters a year in parts of the city (Agua Capital, UNAM and UNESCO).
Mexico exported nearly 30 billion cubic meters of virtual water in 2024; 78% went to the United States. Beef and pork alone represented 22.7% of the total (WWF México and AgroDer).
Four San Quintín aquifers are being depleted by 68.5 million cubic meters a year. Dissolved solids reach 11 times the national limit, while 56% of the valley receives piped water only intermittently (CONAGUA studies, 2024).
The US Army Corps of Engineers approved the Line 5 tunnel 12 days after Michigan’s Supreme Court rejected the state permit. Ottawa has invoked the 1977 Transit Pipelines Treaty (Michigan Public, Aug 12).
SOCIAL & CITIZENS
Mexico recorded more entries during the World Cup month, but fewer air and non-border tourists. The country received 8.2 million entries in June, an increase of 2.1%. Non-border tourism fell 3.2% and air arrivals declined 5.3%, although total spending still rose 5.9% (INEGI, Aug 13).
Border Patrol recorded 9,295 apprehensions in July, 6% fewer than in June. CBP says this marks 15 consecutive months without releases into the US interior. The agency processed $342 billion in imports during the same month (CBP, Aug 13).
Mexico has received 271,193 returning nationals since January 2025. That includes 171,508 arriving by land and 99,685 by air. The government has issued 55,500 remittance cards (INM and Segob, Aug 14).
Canada will end its Remote Area Border Crossing program on September 14. Active permits remain valid through 11:59 p.m. on September 13. About 90% of users are American; travelers will instead report by telephone or enter through a staffed port (CBSA).
Baja California lost 3.9% in remittances during the first half of the year while Mexico gained 3.1%. It was the second-largest decline among the states (Banxico data analysis, Aug 13).
AI & SPACE — THE RACE OF OUR CENTURY
Nvidia is turning compute itself into a Wall Street asset class. On August 10 it partnered with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion in financing for AI infrastructure, with Jensen Huang arguing GPU capacity can be rented and refinanced like real estate or cell towers (NVIDIA Blog, Aug 10).
Ontario will require data centers to earn access to the electrical grid. Projects will face economic, data-sovereignty and community review, along with a possible dedicated electricity rate for large loads (Ontario Environmental Registry, Aug 13).
KIO plans to invest as much as $1.3 billion through 2030, including a 100-megawatt campus in Querétaro. The state already holds 72% of Mexico’s operating data-center capacity, with requests for another 540 megawatts of grid access (KIO and Infobae).
An FCC filing outlines a return to the launch site for the Starship Flight 14 booster, potentially enabling a tower catch. The mission is targeting a full orbit no earlier than August 28 (Advanced Television, Aug 13).
DATA
1,352,595 acre-feet — Mexico’s initial Colorado River allocation for 2026. No 2027 figure has been published.
3,519.91 feet — Lake Powell’s record low on August 15.
1,040.46 feet — the level at which Lake Mead crossed its previous record on August 7.
May 1957 — the last time Mead and Powell contained this little water combined.
$19–26 billion — estimated annual US duty losses attributed to transshipment and tariff evasion.
16.9775 pesos per dollar — the peso’s strongest level since June 3, 2024.
−0.6% / −2.1% — July’s decline in US retail sales and inflation-adjusted Mexican same-store sales.
+51.8% / +13% — growth in Mexican heavy-truck production and intermodal freight.
23 m³/s — estimated water losses from leaks in the Valley of Mexico.
Nearly 30 billion m³ — Mexico’s virtual-water exports in 2024, 78% of them bound for the United States.
Up to $1.3 billion — KIO’s planned investment through 2030.
KEY DATES
Aug 19 — Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods are scheduled to take effect.
Aug 19 — Mexico’s first forum on AI and social-media regulation, Nuevo León.
Aug 24 — Douglas, Arizona, reopens to Mexican cattle.
Aug 28 — earliest announced date for Starship Flight 14.
Sep 1 — Mexico’s Congress opens, with AI legislation among its early priorities.
First week of Sep — fourth US–Mexico bilateral round.
Sep 9 — Bank of Canada interest-rate decision.
Sep 12 — comments close on Ontario’s data-center framework.
Sep 14 — Canada’s Remote Area Border Crossing program ends.
Sep 15–16 — Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
Sep 24 — Banxico interest-rate decision.
Sep 30 — Interior’s stated deadline for the Colorado River Record of Decision.
Oct 1 — the 2027 water year begins, with the post-2026 operating framework scheduled to start.
Dec 31 — the principal temporary operating provisions of Minutes 323 and 330 end.
Sources: International Boundary and Water Commission · Bureau of Reclamation · Associated Press · WWF México and AgroDer · Agua Capital · UNAM · UNESCO · CONAGUA · Danish Environmental Protection Agency · The White House · USTR · CBP · INM · Segob · US Census Bureau · INEGI · ANTAD · ANPACT · Association of American Railroads · Banxico · Canada Border Services Agency · Michigan Public · Ontario Environmental Registry · FCC · CBC · CTV News · BNN Bloomberg · La Jornada · Infobae.