Mexico in the Trump era

Is it Make of Break for Mexico?

Oct 24, 2025

By Eduardo Joffroy | CEO, Joffroy Global

Mexico Against the Clock: The World Is Watching

Mexico is racing against time, and the world is watching.

With global tensions rising, deep U.S. divisions, and a politically fractured Mexico — lagging in progress — pressure is mounting on our president ahead of what could be the negotiation of the century in 2026.

President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, the first woman to hold Mexico’s presidency, now wields a supermajority in all chambers — full power to move the nation to the future Mexico deserves. People from the world believe in her, but people in Mexico see she is a true extreme leftist and is controlled by Morena and her predecessor AMLO.

Will she change Mexico’s course, or will we continue into an extreme left direction?

What’s at stake? Everything.

Trade between the U.S. and Mexico reached a record $840 billion USD in 2024, yet Mexico is not in a strong position to negotiate. Mexico’s economy is totally dependent on having a free trade agreement with the US, but the Morena party policies go against what private investment needs of a truly democratic and capitalistic country.

Stark contradiction.

Anti-democratic reforms, a far-left political system, a weakened democracy, poor rule of law, visible impunity, rising insecurity, and rampant corruption — all compounded by outdated infrastructure, scarce water and energy, failing state companies, a broken healthcare system, uncontrollable criminal organizations, and a confused population of a young workforce that need hope and direction.

All signals point to an upcoming clash with historic consequences between the US and Mexico. Mexican officials are downplaying the upcoming negotiation, I believe Mexico is far from ready.

While the U.S. cannot afford to endanger $159 billion USD in American investments, a failed USMCA review could trigger chaos in supply chains and forced relocations.

OEMs, Tier 1 companies and whole supply chain ecosystems for automotive, electrical, medical, technological and aerospace could see costs jump 20–30 %, hurting consumers and jobs.

North American trade supports 12 million U.S. jobs. A collapse could slash it by up to 60 %, pushing the region into recession — and into China’s hands. Still theh Trump administration wants to re-industrialize the US and see’s Mexico as an opponent more than an ally.

Trump is undeterred, and his perception of Mexico remains deeply negative & concerning for US priorities. He sees Mexico as a Narco State and personally I don’t blame him at all. In Mexico we don’t talk about it much for fear of repercussions, but the truth is that it is everywhere and we see no improvement.

Benefits of building the North American Block

The U.S. needs Mexico’s manufacturing power, its natural resources and young workforce to reduce Asia dependence and strengthen regional security.

Mexico must offer exactly what the US and Canada need from us and under very strong rules to assure foreign investment protection for many years to come.

In return, Mexico would gain access to markets, technology, and investment — with the potential to double GDP in a decade and reach Canadian-level GDP per capita. Mexico now more than ever needs private investments in all areas of the country that are in decay: Highways, ports, borders, airports, cargo trains, subways, streets, parks, tunnels, transit trains, micromobility, electricity, oil, sustainability, green energy, health, education and more.

Mexico needs to lose its grip on too much control and let itself be helped by its leading partners.

A thriving Mexico would mean less illegal migration north, more migration into Mexico, less crime, and progress like never before..

This is possible — if Mexico shows the world it’s ready to write a new chapter in its modern history. Whats holding us back? I would love to be able to ask our president directly.

Together, we could be a global powerhouse:

Secure borders could cut fentanyl deaths (100,000 per year in the U.S.)
Joint security efforts could reduce Mexico’s 30,000 annual cartel deaths
Shared resources would bring stability and investor confidence
Common legal @ tech standards could make North America the world’s most competitive region
Free flow of top talent could fuel innovation in North America.
Crossed opportunities for North Americans would open one of the biggest economies of the world if we stick together.

Divided we risk falling behind other nations; united we will rise.

1. 2026: The Moment That Defines Our Future

In July 2026, the USMCA’s mandatory review takes effect — a turning point for the world’s second-largest trading bloc: $1.5 trillion USD in annual trade and millions of jobs at stake.

U.S. investments in Mexico reached $36.1 billion USD in 2023, fueling automotive, electronics, and manufacturing sectors.

Washington is watching closely — corruption, crime, political overreach, and legal uncertainty have raised alarms.

Mexico must prove through actions it remains a reliable partner.

2. What the U.S. Expects from México

The U.S. will demand clear guarantees:

Supply chains: México must be a reliable platform for nearshoring. Expect stricter rules of origin, zero-tolerance for corruption, and deeper cooperation in semiconductors and customs systems.
Borders & ports: Integrated inspections, joint training, and digital tracking to curb illicit trade. Mexican customs must become trade facilitators, not militarized barriers.
Energy, infrastructure & rule of law: Reliable access to energy and water is essential. Investors need legality, transparency, and modern logistics infrastructure.

3. Strategic Priorities for Mexico

To sit as an equal at the USMCA table, Mexico must act fast to show we are serious about moving this agreement forward:

Institutional trust: Recenter democracy toward a pragmatic, centrist path that builds mutual confidence.
Infrastructure drive: Public-private co-investment in energy, water, ports, and customs tech. Gradually free CFE and Pemex from inefficiency.
Economic lift-off: Simplify taxes, support SMEs, and formalize millions of jobs to unleash investment and domestic growth.
Security & justice: Set measurable anti-corruption goals, deploy intelligence against cartels, and restore citizen trust.

Example: Vietnam’s supply-chain reforms propelled FDI to $38.2 billion USD in 2024.

5. The Deep Changes Mexico Urgently Needs

This is about trust, not trade.

Washington seeks integrity and proof:

Fuel theft (Huachicol Fiscal): Must be faced and eliminated with U.S. support to recover billions in lost revenue.
Justice & impunity: Strengthen courts, halve arbitration cases, protect investors and citizens alike. (Corrupt politician have been allowed to steal and get away with it, this needs to stop as well)
Financial reform: Bring millions out of informality through incentives and simplicity. Stop trying to cover political costs by strangling the few productive companies and work with them to design a strategic tax system that incentivizes more investment in Mexico. Since Morena came into office, billions of wealth has fled Mexico and will continue to do so.
Empower the private sector: Build a system that works for people and business — not against them.
GDP per Capita shows how Mexico has a huge gap and opportunity vs close neighbors and similar nations like South Korea who had a civil war in the 1950s and was a colonized country before that.

6. The Trust Gap: U.S. vs. Mexico

n the U.S., investors trust the legal system — independent agencies, solid courts, fair arbitration.

In Mexico, post-reforms, entrepreneurs feel intimidated by government overreach, corruption, and excessive fines.

Fix justice. Eliminate corruption.

Confidence will follow — potentially tripling FDI, as Chile did in the 2000s.

Evolution of FDI in Chile: Trends, challenges and opportunities for 2024-2025.

7. Smart Nationalism Wins

Mexico’s power will come from results, not rhetoric.

Trump may set the tone, but the future of security, jobs, and growth depends on all three nations.

With vision, rule of law, North American integration, smart energy investment, and strong borders, Mexico will earn respect — not ask for it.

Let’s bet on ourselves and prosper.

What do you think? Share your comments or ideas below!

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